Monday, August 20, 2007

We all Want the US out Iraq but...

I never was very clear on this, so what do you people think should the US get out of Iraq and if so what do you think will happen afterwards ?

So the general idea based on Bilal's and mohanned's comments ( thanks for contributing) is that it would be better for them to leave Iraq and it will sort it's own mess out but that will never happen.
The way i see it is as someone who is living in Jordan I am against the United states cutting and running out of Iraq the same way it did in Vietnam, there needs to be a negotiated agreement with some international forces to take control from the united states and through all of that a deposition of the method of governance and renegotiation between the Iraqi sects that aim at maintaining the country as a single entity and at the same time allowing some Independent governance of the different areas. otherwise instead of a endemic warfare its going to be a pandemic warfare.

If they do leave, and yes mohanned it is the most likely scenario by 2009 if not earlier, and the situation in Iraq is not contained. that will mean trouble for the whole region that is far greater than what we are facing now. The country to take the majority of the damage due to that will be Jordan.
so if they cut and run out of, the killings in Iraq due to sectarian violence is bound to increase in order to secure power. Now those sects will establish ties with the neighboring countries in order for them to contain the carnage within Iraq in exchange for supplies. Or they might rely on the bases in their country.
Now the more you rely on American aid the more prone you are to a terrorist attack and the more refugees you take in the more prone that sectarian violence will resurges with the tensions rising between those refugees in their host country.
So it is a lose-lose situation either way, if you lean too much toward either side you are inviting violence.

Whose the country that is most willing to accept Iraqi refugees ?
So as it stands currently ironically although am totally against the war in Iraq, i feel its far better for the whole region if the United states stays there since it acts a buffer so far. The weird thing about Iraq that the violence is discriminatory, you are never too sure if it foreigners, liberators, terrorists, fanatics, sectarian or just blood lust. Some how reminds me of conflicts in Africa, Rwanda style.

see why that wasn't a comment :P
what do u guys think ?
ps. mohannad the US can't maintain the war in its current form neither economically or politically.

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  • The important thing is that they get out of there. Other than this, it remains Iraqi's business, not the Americans or anyone else.

    By Blogger Bilal, At 20/8/07 14:49  

  • A genocide against the sunnies, thats exactly what will happen, they will all be kicked out to anbar province. End of story..But the US will never leave iraq, they made it clear, they will have I think 12-14 bases around iraq and in the "region" if you know what I mean.

    By Blogger Mohanned, At 20/8/07 16:38  

  • comment in the post

    By Blogger No_Angel, At 20/8/07 19:26  

  • Understood, but to think that the US will leave Iraq is not accurate, you have the two front runners in the democratic party clinton and obama-Most likely clinton will be the next president- saying that they will re-deploy into bases both in iraq and in the region to protect the oil and "the people"

    Economically this family guy clip will explain the mentality that most americans have


    Politically, one terror attack on the US soil can change everything..

    And never ignore the relegious aspect of this war(which I think is the reason behind this war) evangelicals approved both hillary and obama, the other day right wing media praised hilary for it's "blind" support to israel..

    Iraq was like a piece of pottery that had been shattered into pieces, it will never be the same..Jordan will be backed by saudies and the gulf as we will be the last wall to protect mecca from being liberated by ayot allah..

    By Blogger Mohanned, At 20/8/07 20:01  

  • honestly I don't think it will be a democrat winning the election but its too early to call it.
    I guess your take is what my optimistic side likes to believe :P
    my end is that they won't really have much time to worry about whether they pull out or not, cause they can't support the war their currency is crashing they are over their head in debt and they have no manufacturing industry to fall back on. So the way things work is that those bases will be stranded and will pull out to the bigger bases and having them all in one spot will certainly be attractive to some. at that point gulfies will be too scared to worry about themselves never mind others.
    the war from my PoV was pure economics, and not really so much for the oil since there was more at stake at the moment that just securing the oil which they could have done in many other ways that would have been more stable but they simply were short on time.

    By Blogger No_Angel, At 20/8/07 20:46  

  • Wallah I don't know my friend, but I see your pessimism and raise you aramagedon :P

    Look man, economics might be the obvious aspect of this war, maybe me and you are trying to make it look this way, but I truely think it is relegious, maybe a large portion of the american public share our views but the "elite" said it was relegious..

    Saudi arabia will never allow Iranians to get closer to mecca, UAE with it's economic bubble doesn't wanna see Iran on it borders with bahrain(No borders in real but they are pretty close), the current Iraqi government is allying itself with Iran and syria(you can check my latest "post").

    I would agree with you that the region is reaching for its destruction but to think that the US will withdraw is not accurate, they will not make the same mistake and invade on foot, they will just use their air power maybe with some ground presence to create chaeos, Iran I think will be their next target after they clean up their mess and redeploy into the region(jordan included)..

    Allah yostor bro..

    BTW, just like the number of people going to the mosques increased in our region, the number of people going to the church here increased also..


    By Blogger Mohanned, At 20/8/07 22:28  

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