Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Palajordanian view (spoken with a P B accent) Part UNO

Well I don't know whats the cause of all those debates on Qwaidar's, black iris, or the every present in those thread muhanned was, but its nice to see them talk.
Then again it is also amusing in the morning to read some of the comments.

So we currently have 3 different type of people in Jordan with regard to what should be done, and each one is quite zealous as usual:

The First Type: No matter how painful and bloody the change is it needs to be taken, democracy is a great system and highly beneficial to the country. It will provide the mechanism to resolve alot of the social and economical issue currently faced here. Plus its going to take the power out of the hands of the few and give it back to the people.

the Second type: The current situation in Jordan is heading for the better, just give it time and it will be better. The monarchy is a better system than the democracy and we must bond with whatever makes us Jordanian, and put Jordan as the first priority on our agenda!
(Oh) and if we adopt democracy the people that will be in power will not have Jordan's interest in their hearts and will ruin the country.

The Third and Final Type: Currently things are not all that great, but if the opposition ever gets the chance to implement things their way, and the current system is disturbed the effects on the people will be devastating. This will reflect poorly on the people of this country. hence its better to maintain what we currently have rather than abolishing it completely and starting anew.

From what I see is the following; the current situation in Jordan is on a critical point.
  • The current over-population of the capitol
  • The sudden spike of multi ethnicity
  • the disparity of classes increasing
  • the stupendous amount of foreign investments and acquisitions
  • the erosion of complacency among the population
  • The inflation of the economy

All these factors contribute to social unrest if left to their own course. Jordan for the past 30 years has been balanced delicately in its social interaction.

Palestinians learned their boundaries quite harshly, while the Jordanian grew cautious and were consumed in their pride.
That all changed 17 years ago, when the second gulf war started, it was the wave of immigrants from Kuwait and Iraq that disturbed the balance.
This came at a point when Jordan was still dizzy from the effect of the 1989 collapse. So when They cam & stimulated the economy, and due to the emotional connection we felt to the cause we embraced, and welcomed the extra fabric to our society.

Though the side effect has been enormous, our culture got exposed to many things that we were not accustomed to, and it invoked the Palestinian/Jordanian issue but on a triad rather than it being bi-polar.
It also was the first societal interaction we had with a different ethnic group to than the Levant.
Now adays we are faced with an ever stronger influx of Iraqis which is putting alot of pressure points on our social structure.

The people have always been used to use old wisdom to figure out the origin of the person, so to an external observer we were indistinguishable.

Currently although we got used to the segregation of tasks & roles it is becoming very challenging to maintain that. With the Iraqis having been part of our society for over seventeen years by now. I think it is very naive of us to keep ignoring their existence as a part of the community.

The current system has been able to maintain stability through out this period, due to careful positioning of international standing, international aid, local development, and reform prospects(or i should say "the ever elusive carrot technique").
What is putting more pressure on the people now is the inflation that is denting their routine. the people got used to getting by on day to day bases and making ends meet that they didn't have time to worry about social issues. Now that their routine life has been challenged they are getting irked to find a way out.

As it stands, The majority of the Jordanian population is of Palestinian origin(about 70% I believe) that includes the one that claim that they are Jordanian since they migrated here before the Nakse7 (that is 1948) and e.g for this is the city of Al - Salt. The current benefactors of the system are predominately of aboriginal Jordanian origins .
The poverty lines are also skewed, the major poverty areas are to the eastern and northern parts of Jordan (which is a predominately of indigenous Jordanian population)

If a major flip of scales occurs, it is only natural for the majority to obtain more rights and for the system's benefits be distributed equally among the populace.
That will not suite the current Jordanian mentality, since it is considered their birth right to have that privilege and its not the right for the guests(which the Palestinian are still considered as, and add to that the Iraqis now) to abuse their hospitality, so they will decide to react to it.

It is inevitable that it boil down to violence in this stage, the military is loyal to the status-quo, the gun ownership ratios are very skewed. All it would take is a single bullet to reestablish martial law which has been relaxed only in the past few years (less than a decade).
In this mix, I believe our currently considerable Iraqi population will benefit from fueling both sides, and then giving allegiance to the winner. which will only prolong the process.

a few final notes, politics requires actual experience. With that i don't mean the counter punch experience of the arab's opposition, I mean actually experience in foreign affairs and political involvement on a national/international level. So our political movement in Jordan is nothing more than a 2-D carton model that will be decimated under pressure. They have not delegated on behalf of people, they are just representative of their support. So they will unable to plan a longterm vision, and be able to achieve.
Most important for a sudden switch is an icon or Hero of the revolution, Che Guevara, Abdullah I, George Washington & the founding fathers, Ghandi, Lennin, Nasser, Chavez PBUH Mohammed. A person that is able to unite the masses regardless for a cause regardless of their differences. After all this time in complacency am sorry to say that the population is spineless and unable to produce anyone of such caliber. Every herd need a shepherd, a revolution without a leader is just a bunch of sheep up for mischief.

This is the projection for a sudden shift in power. Some say this is the way to go, and the only way to establish democracy, well if the interest of the poor is the reason you advocate this style then democracy will literally reduce them to slave workers, since all democracies adopt a capitalistic system. Which is closer to a tape worm than a symbiote. it will absorb everything available to grow, while making its host (the population in this case) weaker.

It is running late now, please bear with me here since i will also discuss the other 2 sides and how i view them, so please if ur gonna flame me and its regarding the other 2 wait till i talk about them tom :D

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  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger Firas, At 29/3/07 09:25  

  • I think the simulation of the economy was the result of the increasing trade with Iraqi’s including the free oil as well and oil for food program. And later the pressure of the returning Jordanian was eased by their relocation to other Gulf States and flow of their remittance to the economy again (1).
    I have to disagree with you about the 70% I don’t think it is really accurate, a more accurate number will be between 45-55% maybe 60% at best, well as we know that most of the Jo-Pal population(2) is located mainly in Amman, Zarqa and less numbers in Irbid and Jarash. There is no major population in most of the other cities. The total population of those four cities is a little less than 75%. A closer look at the demographics of individual cities and a closer examination of the total votes casted in the last election [in the districts not as a total] for example will indicate that at least 30% of the 75% are east Jordanians. With will lead to about 50% percentage in my opinion. Others(3) have stated(4) similar numbers(5) as well.
    That’s being said it doesn’t mean that the majority are being adequately represented in the government or that your description is not valid; especially the lack of real political experience. I think the reasons behind it are very interesting. Well I will be waiting for the other parts.

    By Blogger Firas, At 29/3/07 09:42  

  • hey thanks for stopping by Firas & thanks for the links i was much obliged to read them, Yes that was one side of it with regard to the economy, trade actual took a major hit with the sanctions since the Iraqis were unable to make the payments, but on the other hand the housing boom, and the startup of business by the immigrants evolved the jordanian business market at that time.
    As for the percentage estimates I took the liberty of the 70% due to a few reasons;
    1. there is no official estimate (IMHO), quoting King Abdullah the second he put the number at around 45-50%, various other sources place it within the 50% to 70%
    2. The DoS methods of acquiring the ir data is ameteurish at best, even their population estimate are skewed to reflect a lower number so that the GDP and per capita won't be damaged (which is in our interest btw)
    3. currently in those estimates there are alot of people that are part of Jordan but are not counted, and there are alot of palestinians that are considered part of Jordan.
    That is why i mentioned Al-Salt, this is a city that is considered Jordanian, but the majority of the population can trace its routes to Palestine (nablus mainly) although a few decades earlier than the nakba.
    4. with the 70% estimate, and by it being reflected in the ruling body it will be able to pass the Quorum without much of a hassle. So it fitted the scenario.
    5. I specifically mentioned the Aboriginal Jordanians so that Jordanians of other origins, whether carcasian, chechnyian, or syrian or kurdish will not be included in a lump sum.

    Anyways whatever the numbers are we are not sure till they do an official estimate which we were promised in 2002 but never will happen. will keep them coming.

    By Blogger No_Angel, At 29/3/07 10:42  

  • Hi No_Angel,

    I have been following all debates closely and I like your approach to the subject, it seems that nobody wants to be objective when commenting on posts and they just want to defend or attack.

    I am reading, please keep writing :) .

    By Anonymous 7aki Fadi, At 29/3/07 18:41  

  • One other thing, I have to agree with Firas, the Palestinian population could not be more than 60%.

    But now with Jordanians marrying Palestinians and the other way around it’s hard to say whose who, but the rural areas are almost 90% trans-Jordanians (would be maybe the more accurate term to use instead of aboriginal)

    By Anonymous 7aki fadi, At 29/3/07 18:46  

  • thanks for the encouragement from you and firas :) what you said actually slipped my mind. true it is becoming harder and harder but to be honest since the mother doesn't provide the nationality in our society so their number will not change the origin for the children. vice versa so they are preserved in a way.
    the majority here(u and firas) say its sub 60% so i would have to consent, but at the end of the day there is no official figure.

    will try to keep them coming

    By Blogger No_Angel, At 29/3/07 21:14  

  • without any government numbers the 60% seems more accurate since there is another almost .5 Million [from Gaza & the west bank) in Jordan with travel documents/temp passports but they are not considered Jordan nationals.
    You are welcome ))

    By Blogger Firas, At 29/3/07 21:32  

  • actually thats one of the points, why is it so hard to accept that someone who lived in a country for over 15 years is still not a citizen ?!
    i dont get that part at all

    By Blogger No_Angel, At 30/3/07 19:15  

  • Honestly, I have no idea. As it stand right now the only difference is that they are not allowed to vote (considering the part of the gov jobs applies regardless if they’re citizens or not)
    I think legally they were not under Jordanian gov in like Gaza so they never got the citizenship when the west bank and the east were one country. The others actually lost their citizenship when the severance of all administrative and legal ties with the occupied West Bank was announced in the 88. As a result of this decision a lot of the west bank residents lost their citizenship. However the government took the responsibility of providing them with travel documents and so forth. Now the question remains why it’s hard to accept somebody who lived for more than 15 years in a country as a citizen of that country. Legally there is no means for them to get a citizenship; this can be applied to almost all the Arab countries. Is it fair? No it’s not. I think this applies to all the Arab countries were you find people who been there their whole life and they don’t even have any citizenship, like many of the Pal in the gulf. However, at the same time granting every body a citizenship is not the solution either at least until a settlement for the Palestinian issue is reached. To add to that I think the government is keeping the current situation as a strategic move in hope to get money for those “refugees” in the future, or as the gov claims to protect their rights (and off course get reimbursed :D). Whether this is goanna happen or not. I really doubt it.

    By Blogger Firas, At 31/3/07 09:41  

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